By Jonathan Pollnow
Opinion Columnist
http://ocolly.com/2008/03/24/questioning-the-future-of-sprawl-after-oil


In Hunter S. Thompson’s infamous book, “Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas,” a passage retrospectively captures the zeitgeist of the ’60s, in which a generation was “riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave.”

“So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark — that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back,” Thompson wrote.

I wonder if years from now, those with the “right kind of eyes” could see the high-water mark of our era.

In what form would we see the high-water mark of decades of being the worlds strongest economy — of being the only superpower?

It is hard not to see Thompson’s perceived zeitgeist as having a geographic component.

I believe one of the more obvious “high-water marks” of our society will be abandoned strip malls, isolated and overgrown suburbs and desolate expanses of highway.

There are plenty of examples of Americans living beyond their means besides the amount of debt we have accumulated both personally and in government.

One of the more glaring examples of our exuberant lifestyle is urban sprawl. Sprawl is not unique to America, but it is definitely a major problem here.

It is a sign of moral bankruptcy both in the decisions we have made personally and the decisions our government has made in deciding how land is to be used.

Urban sprawl is defined by the American Heritage Dictionary as “the unplanned, uncontrolled spreading of urban development into areas adjoining the edge of a city.”

Sprawl most profoundly illustrates the failing zeitgeist of our era — the feeling that there is unlimited energy and technological advances are going to carry us unhindered into the future. This sort of optimism is as unfounded as the assumption that sprawling cities are a wise use of land and resources.

As the price of oil increases, sprawl development, which has been built to rely heavily on automobiles, will become increasingly not feasible.

Commutes and trips to the store will become prohibitively expensive, not to mention shuttling the kids between school, ballet and soccer practice.

Sprawl developments will find themselves increasingly isolated and the value of the property will subsequently decline and could ultimately be abandoned.

Alternative energy sources for vehicles are unlikely to stem the decline and fall of urban sprawl. Fuels like cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass, or biodiesel from algae or oil crops like soybeans are as yet undeveloped and are only being pursued because the price of fuel has reached the point to make alternatives competitive.

Even if we shifted to alternative fuels, the relative price to fuel our commutes will remain the same or continue increase.

One of the more insidious aspects of sprawl is how much productive farmland it has consumed. According to the USDA, from 1982 to 1997, over 4 million acres of prime farmland were converted to developed land.

In a biofuels economy, this land represents valuable feedstock that can no longer be produced. Even while rising fossil fuel prices are causing an increase in food prices, food prices will increase as more land is devoted to feedstock for biofuels.

Either way, we will all have to pay the true price of our current lifestyle.