Palestine Monitor: April Elections – The Slow Motion Train Wreck
April Elections – The Slow Motion Train Wreck
It has been reported today that President Abu Mazen has set a date for new Palestinian elections in April. He has reportedly said to Ma’an News, that this date will not change one way or the other.
Well, now that we have an apparent date-certain for elections, Palestine Monitor has some other uncertainties we would like to have cleared up.
Here they are, numbered for your convenience.
1. Will they include both the West Bank and Gaza Strip?
There have been rumors that the two main Palestinian parties are willing to divide the country into two fiefdoms – a rumor which would become reality if dual elections are held. Furthermore, under the conditions of the Israeli siege which does not look to be ending any time soon, is it logistically feasible to hold and monitor free and fair elections in the Strip?
Now that elections have been scheduled, are there any plans to schedule a new round of national reconciliation talks? Doesn’t that seem like a good idea?
2. Are we electing a parliament as well or simply another care-taker executive branch?
Hamas has asked to hold off parliamentary elections until 2010 when their mandate ends. If this is the case, are we simply selecting a leader who will fill out the minister positions again and continue to act without a legislative arm? Do these caretaker governments allow for real national unity, and if not, how likely is it that their decrees will be respected?
3. Will they include all Palestinian parties or just members of the PLO?
If Ramallah works to exclude Hamas from the vote, will the results be legitimate? And if Hamas is allowed to run once more, what happens if they win again or are needed to fill out a coalition? Will it result in sanctions from Israel and the International Community or an immediate end to the peace process?
4. Can negotiations continue leading up to the elections or will we be waiting for a new president with a new mandate?
Much like Ehud Olmert’s current role as leading negotiations while having one foot out the door, will the specter of elections render Palestinian negotiators impotent? If this is the case, are we wasting an opportunity to test the waters with a new American President before his attention is sapped by any other number of crises around the world? Are we waiting too long? The Israeli elections, slated for mid-February, have already put a hold on talks. Is it wise to extend this another couple of months? If Abbas continues negotiating in the interim, do all parties have to respect the results if any were to be arrived at?
5. If national elections are held, will the constitutionally questionable emergency government changes to the electoral law to a fully proportional, closed-list system be in effect?
In September of 2007, the Emergency Government changed the electoral law without receiving parliamentary approval, and without debate. It seems likely that any group who feels that their electoral prospects would be harmed by this would choose not to recognize it. What would happen then?
Sometimes following Palestinian politics is like watching a slow-motion train wreck. You can see the lights of the oncoming train and hear its whistle quite clearly. You don’t know quite what to do about it, but you know what the result will be if nothing is done.
KABOOM!
Those concerned with this, and those who flex some control over the results, should have some clear answers to the questions above if we hope to change tracks at the last minute.
Well, now that we have an apparent date-certain for elections, Palestine Monitor has some other uncertainties we would like to have cleared up.
Here they are, numbered for your convenience.
1. Will they include both the West Bank and Gaza Strip?
There have been rumors that the two main Palestinian parties are willing to divide the country into two fiefdoms – a rumor which would become reality if dual elections are held. Furthermore, under the conditions of the Israeli siege which does not look to be ending any time soon, is it logistically feasible to hold and monitor free and fair elections in the Strip?
Now that elections have been scheduled, are there any plans to schedule a new round of national reconciliation talks? Doesn’t that seem like a good idea?
2. Are we electing a parliament as well or simply another care-taker executive branch?
Hamas has asked to hold off parliamentary elections until 2010 when their mandate ends. If this is the case, are we simply selecting a leader who will fill out the minister positions again and continue to act without a legislative arm? Do these caretaker governments allow for real national unity, and if not, how likely is it that their decrees will be respected?
3. Will they include all Palestinian parties or just members of the PLO?
If Ramallah works to exclude Hamas from the vote, will the results be legitimate? And if Hamas is allowed to run once more, what happens if they win again or are needed to fill out a coalition? Will it result in sanctions from Israel and the International Community or an immediate end to the peace process?
4. Can negotiations continue leading up to the elections or will we be waiting for a new president with a new mandate?
Much like Ehud Olmert’s current role as leading negotiations while having one foot out the door, will the specter of elections render Palestinian negotiators impotent? If this is the case, are we wasting an opportunity to test the waters with a new American President before his attention is sapped by any other number of crises around the world? Are we waiting too long? The Israeli elections, slated for mid-February, have already put a hold on talks. Is it wise to extend this another couple of months? If Abbas continues negotiating in the interim, do all parties have to respect the results if any were to be arrived at?
5. If national elections are held, will the constitutionally questionable emergency government changes to the electoral law to a fully proportional, closed-list system be in effect?
In September of 2007, the Emergency Government changed the electoral law without receiving parliamentary approval, and without debate. It seems likely that any group who feels that their electoral prospects would be harmed by this would choose not to recognize it. What would happen then?
Sometimes following Palestinian politics is like watching a slow-motion train wreck. You can see the lights of the oncoming train and hear its whistle quite clearly. You don’t know quite what to do about it, but you know what the result will be if nothing is done.
KABOOM!
Those concerned with this, and those who flex some control over the results, should have some clear answers to the questions above if we hope to change tracks at the last minute.
