In 1982 John Gaines had a vision – one day, seven championship races bringing together the best horses in the world with all races having a purse of at least $1 Million. In 1984 that dream was realized when the very first Breeders’ Cup Day was held at Hollywood Park. In the 25 years since, one area of consternation to handicappers has been how to rate horses with only foreign race form. For the handicapper used to North American speed ratings, pace handicapping, dirt tracks, and times down the hundredth/second, trying to decipher the form of European horses running on turf courses with varying degrees of size, shape and energy requirements has left many a handicapper scratching his head. Often foreign race data gives only final time, finish position, and course condition.

Trying to rate contenders from Europe and elsewhere, handicappers had to rely on published articles and/or the excellent Timeform ratings. Often it was a guessing game. In the early years of the Breeders’ Cup it was clear that the horses who performed well in Group 1 races worldwide were competitive with North Americans. However there was no clear way to rate all horses using one rating system.

The Development Team at Trackmaster set about to tackle this problem and after years of painstaking research, a breakthrough in the Spring of 2008 led to methods to assignSpeed Figures and Class Ratings to most foreign (not run in North America) races. These ratings are on the same scale as the Equibase Speed Figures and Class Ratings used in our North American past performances, so foreign entrants in North American races can now be easily evaluated. More details can be found in a prior blog post.

We’ll take a look at some of the top European contenders in the major 2009 Breeders’ Cup races and how they compare to their North American counterparts. But first a look back at last years Breeders’ Cup Classic:

2008 BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

Europeans ran 1-2 beating the mighty Curlin, and though Curlin’s owner Jess Jackson is convinced it was the Pro Ride artificial surface that got him beat, a quick look at each horse’s last threeSpeed Figures might tell a different story.

HORSE Last SR 2nd Back 3rd Back Curlin 113 111 113 Raven’s Pass 119 109 117 Henrythenavigator 117 121 117 Duke of Marmalade 129 126 135

Curlin was the betting favorite. He had beaten just about everything that came his way for the past two years, and his 2008 win in the Dubai World Cup stamped him as perhaps the best dirt horse in the world. Duke of Marmalade was the was the top European male of 2008 but clearly came out of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe worse for wear and ran a dull ninth in the 2008 Classic. Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator were considered top milers in Europe but despite that finshed 1-2 after passing a one-paced Curlin in mid-stretch. For those paying attention to the Equibase Speed Figures, Curlin at 4-5 was a bad bet. Raven’s Pass was certainly playable at 13-1 and paid his backers $29 to win. Henrythenavigator, also a contender on the Equibase Speed Figures, paid $22 to place. A $1 exacta box on the three main European contenders returned $159.80

A similar situation may present itself in the

2009 BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC

The 2009 Classic may draw up to three top European contenders. It may also draw the undefeated filly Zenyatta, whose dominance over her own gender and experience over the Santa Anita Pro Ride surface will give her a home field advantage. On numbers, it would appear that she may be vulnerable and the astute bettor would be advised to try and beat her – under the right conditions. Likewise, the top 3-year old male in North America, Summer Bird, will be well backed here and is by no means a standout. The Europeans will not be as well-represented in this race as in 2008. The best of the lot, like the 1-2 finishers from 2008 is a miler – Rip Van Winkle (IRE). Lesser fancied, and likely to run in other Cup races are Twice Over (GB) and Mastercraftsman (IRE). Using the same criteria as above (most recent SR listed first), the top contenders in the Classic are:

EUROPEANS Rip Van Winkle (IRE) 123 125 124 Mastercraftsman (IRE) 115 117 128 Twice Over (GB) 127 101 100 NORTH AMERICANS Gio Ponti 112 122 121 Colonel John 119 111 121 Summer Bird 115 112 108 Zenyatta 112 108 116

The numbers say that Rip Van Winkle appears to be the horse to beat, and certainly looks to be the best of the Europeans. Bettors are likely to drive the odds on Zenyatta and Summer Bird down below 5-1. The other two mentioned above are likely to be overlays. And what to make of Twice Over’s 127 earned in his last race? Mastercraftsman may run in the Dirt Mile instead.

For Zenyatta fans, it should be noted that in many of her races the early pace has been excruciatingly slow, which often leads to low final time speed ratings. The pace in the Classic will be honest, and by all accounts Zenyatta should have no problem with the classic 1 1/4 mile distance. However, with jockey Mike Smith’s penchant for moving very wide into the stretch with her, and a much better cast of contenders here, she’s going to have to run the best race of her life to remain (and probably retire) undefeated.

Moving on, here’s a quick look at a two of the other races with multiple European entrants.

2009 BREEDERS CUP TURF

For the 2nd year in a row the Breeders’ Cup Turf will not have a full field. In fact it is possible that this year’s event may have as few as 7 runners led by 2008 Turf winner Conduit (IRE).

EUROPEANS Conduit (IRE) 133 128 118 Da Re Mi (GB) 132 120 118 Red Rocks (IRE) 116 97 113 Spanish Moon 118 123 120 NORTH AMERICANS Allegre 106 103 90 Monzante 113 102 126 Presious Passion 113 109 115 Telling 110 115 112 Summer Bird 115 112 108

Summer Bird will likely go in the Classic. Da Re Mi (GB) is also entered in the Filly & Mare Turf (2nd preference). Clearly the North Americans are up against it here. This will likely be the easiest race on the card to handicap. There is no secret as to how this race will run. Presious Passion goes out, opens up a huge lead and everyone else tries to catch him. Conduit (IRE) and Da Re Mi (GB) are clearly the class of the field and will be the ones chasing ‘Passion home.

2009 BREEDERS CUP MILE

The impressive winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile, Goldikova (IRE), returns to defend her crown. Let’s face facts…at her best, there is no horse in the world that can beat her at a mile. However those who are looking to try have to be encouraged by the fact that she lost her most recent race, the Group 1 Prix de la Foret, without showing her characteristic burst of late speed. Here’s the field:

EUROPEANS Delegator (GB) 115 117 117 Gladiatorus 119 113 96 Goldikova (IRE) 121 131 121 Zacinto (GB) 120 115 96 NORTH AMERICANS Awesome Gem 116 111 110 Colonel John 119 111 121 Courageous Cat 104 106 104 Court Vision 113 105 116 Cowboy Cal 121 111 108 Ferneley (IRE) 117 119 118 Justenuffhumor 100 112 113 Karelian 113 118 116 Mr. Sidney 103 110 115 Whatsthescript (IRE) 117 118 116

Awesome Gem and Colonel John have first preference for the Classic. Assuming that those who go for the bigger prize, Goldikova (IRE) again looks to be the one to beat. If she is not the filly she was last year though, the race looks wide open and the Mile is usually one race on the Cup card that is often decided by inches.

Speed and Class Ratings for Foreign Races are a vital in the handicapper’s toolbox. Armed with these exclusive ratings, the handicapper can confidently attack the Breeders’ Cup races and for that matter, any race with an entrant who has not previously raced in North America.

On a related note, we are excited to announce the availability of Timeform reports for Breeders’ Cup days. Their in-depth commentary and bios for each of the foreign entries will prove to be a valuable tool ondays when they expect a record number of horses to be shipping in from across the pond. Look for these reports in the TrackMaster Winner’s Circle starting on Thursday.

J Stone
TrackMaster Foreign Racing Analyst

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TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.