Nouriel Roubini

Why should anyone give a damn what he forecasts? His forecast is as likely to be right as it is wrong. Do a Google search using "James Montier" and "Folly of Forecasting." Roubini predicted oil would hover between $30 and $40 a barrel this year and we would see 5,000 on the Dow when it was trading at 6,500. Now it's at 9,500. It's snake oil.

I think that this latest forecast will prove too optimistic, unfortunately...

It's all about Kondratieff Waves. I learned in the early-1990's that there would be a major economic downturn in the 2000's. The Kondratieff theorists predicted it!

in april 2006 when I still was a student , i predicted , the downturn, .

Do you have a link??

but the question is, will the region benefit from that devaluation, or make it worse, as 60-70 percent of credits are denominated in euros, as already highly priced energy and other resources gets even more expensive (most of them are imports in dollars, euros), and as main export markets are heavily, probably most damaged in the whole world by ... Read Morecurrent crisis.. These economies are too open and too dependant, and neither devaluation nor natural deflation will help to stop the crash until crisis is over in the main leading economies, to my mind. These two options just differ in the terms of sufferings length and pain strength.

- Isn't the above economic situation due to Keyesian Economics: John Keynes's idea of a perfect economy? Is he not the one that suggested to gov'ts that they should leverage debt by spending if their country needs to grow? So we should continue to follow this with economics leaders's advice who were taught the same school of thought? It seems a house of cards.

you are an amazing guy I have found this blog about you featuring your speeches and interviews ...tell us what you think if you have time : http://www.Nourielroubini.tk

Nouriel my friend I believe the whole system is failing and falling apart ..it is not about Gold anymore I think soon it will be about survival ...

...it rocks to know the market and make money from all the anomalies and mis-pricings...

Nouriel, as a NYU Stern '85 grad, I follow your work closely and many hat tips for your predictions over the last 5 years. That said, do you believe in the recent upturn in leading economic indicators ( www.businesscycle.com )? These leading indicators turned up exactly in early March '09 coincident with the stock market recovery. Thx, Jim I

I... Read More’m glad that the lack of credibility of these regulators and their unjustifiable sense of optimism is being highlighted. Their one-size-fits-all approach is probably going to do more harm to the financial system. This oped is very timely considering Warren Buffett’s recent criticism of the government's stress tests which he believes fail to take into account the differences in lenders’ business models (ex. non-net interest income based) and funding costs. The issue also goes beyond bad assumptions for macro variables, since the limited analytical techniques that are being used have been highly susceptible to political intrusion. The various leaks have triggered a stock market rally based on speculation that banks' shortfalls aren’t as bad as once thought. The selective disclosure of the stress test results poses other dimensions of risk to the system and may undermine the integrity of the capital markets (ex. due to insider trading).

you are influential , you share Dr Doom nick name with Marc Faber and Peter Schiff

This is too funny....next... t-shirts and mugs?

I hope you liked the song.

After reviewing the plan, I still think key changes are needed for the plan to have its desired effect in terms of aligning the government's (and taxpayer's) incentives with those of private investors.

Yep yep....MANY CHANGES are needed for this plan to work...but there is a glimmer of hope, albeit faint......

With the banks now having enough Capital according to stress tests why would they sell the toxic assets at a price that would be attractive to both the buyer and seller.. Mark to market changes have also helped the banks retain these assets without having to sell.. Plans set up by geitner are actually going to make it harder to get these banks to sell those assets... Unless they get strong armed by THE OBAMA ADMIN..

Yay! so proud of you... you'll always be on my list ; )

agreed