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As promised yesterday, here is the outlook for the next 10 days, up until Christmas day.
Historically speaking, the Golden Horseshoe region has a 58% chance of seeing a white Christmas.
The question... ARE WE GOING TO HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS for Southern Ontario. The Answer.... at this point in time YES.
Historically speaking, the Golden Horseshoe region has a 58% chance of seeing a white Christmas.
The question... ARE WE GOING TO HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS for Southern Ontario. The Answer.... at this point in time YES.
Temperatures will certainly be on the cold side as a huge pool of cold air resides over the area and basically gets locked into the region for the next few weeks.
The general storm track in this scenario favours a more southerly route, however generally Southern Ontario sits on the northern fringe of any storms that follow the Jetstream in this pattern.
Over the next 10 days there will be a number of light snow events that will give a few cm of snow and with the cold temperatures expected, the snow will stay on the ground. The sun is too weak at this time of year to have much melting effects.
NOW.... there is a major storm that has appeared on the computer model maps around the 23rd or 24th. Current indications are for the storm to move up the eastern seaboard of the United States and this would give some snow to the Golden Horseshoe regions of Southern Ontario. Likely about 5-10cm worth. However, any westward movement of the storm, significantly more accumulations would fare out.
The long range computer model that is most often used has a history of trending these winter storms to the west over time.... SO, we shall see. But as with any storm 10 days out, there is NOT much confidence that it will happen. I will keep you up to date on this scenario in the upcoming days.
You can get all the details on my site...
http://www.ontarioweathers
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA TORONTO
AT 6:11 PM EDT SUNDAY 23 AUGUST 2009.
SUMMARY OF THE TORNADO OUTBREAK OVER ONTARIO ON AUGUST 20.
--------------------------
==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==
NOTE THAT ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS CONDUCTED A DAMAGE SURVEY IN THE
GRAVENHURST AREA TODAY, AND HAS CONFIRMED THAT ANOTHER TORNADO
OCCURRED DURING THE STORMS LAST THURSDAY. THIS TORNADO WAS RATED
F0. THIS BRINGS THE TOTALS THUS FAR TO 5 CONFIRMED TORNADOES, PLUS 1
PROBABLE TORNADO AND 1 POSSIBLE TORNADO.
A TRIPLE BARRELLED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK STRUCK ONTARIO
THURSDAY.
SHORTLY AFTER NOON A SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH
OF LAKE HURON. THIS CELL TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD FOR A REMARKABLE 200
KM PRODUCING THE DURHAM AND THORNBURY TORNADOES. THE STORM
CELL FINALLY WEAKENED OVER GEORGIAN BAY TOWARD EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THEN
TRACKED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS FEATURE PRODUCED STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO SEVERAL
LOCALES FROM WINDSOR TO WELL NORTHEAST OF TORONTO AS WELL AS THE
DESTRUCTIVE VAUGHAN AND NEWMARKET TORNADOES.
FINALLY IN THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPED
NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN BAY AND TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD TO PRODUCE A
POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER THE AREA BETWEEN ARNSTEIN AND NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS A WATERSPOUT OVER LAKE NIPISSING.
THERE WAS ONE FATALITY WITH THE TORNADO IN THE SOUTH END OF DURHAM.
SEVERAL OF THE TORNADOES WERE RATED AS F2 DAMAGE ON THE FUJITA
SCALE. F2 DAMAGE IS EQUIVALENT TO WIND STRENGTH OF 180 TO 250 KM/H.
THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF TORNADOES AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGE ASSESSED
BY FOUR SEPARATE ENVIRONMENT CANADA STORM DAMAGE TEAMS.
--------------------------
DATE
TORNADO LOCATION/PATH
TORNADO 1(CONFIRMED) 5 KM SW OF DURHAM TO MARKDALE
F2 TORNADO DAMAGE
(ROUGHLY 20 KM)
(SIGNIFICANT HOUSE+ TRAILER DAMAGE, TREES DOWN)
TORNADO 2(CONFIRMED) FROM SOUTH OF THORNBURY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THORNBURY (PATH LENGTH UNKNOWN)
F2 TORNADO DAMAGE
(DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME)
TORNADO 3(CONFIRMED) WOODBRIDGE/VAUGHAN
(SEVERAL KM LONG + 50 METRES WIDE)
F2 TORNADO DAMAGE (HUNDREDS OF HOMES DAMAGED, TREES DOWN,CARS FLIPPED)
TORNADO 4(CONFIRMED) NEWMARKETAREA F1 TORNADO DAMAGE (HOCKEY ARENA ALMOST DEMOLISHED)
TORNADO 5(CONFIRMED) GRAVENHURST AREA
F0 TORNADO DAMAGE (PATH ABOUT 10 KM LONG
AND UP TO 1 KM WIDE)
(SHALLOW ROOTED TREES DOWN)
TORNADO 6(PROBABLE) ARNSTEIN TO RESTOULE TO NORTH BAY WATERSPOUT/TORNADO(PATH LENGTH UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME)
SIGHTINGS (DAMAGE DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME)
TORNADO 7(POSSIBLE) MILTON
F1 DAMAGE
(SOME ROOF DAMAGE)
THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA TORONTO
AT 6:11 PM EDT SUNDAY 23 AUGUST 2009.
SUMMARY OF THE TORNADO OUTBREAK OVER ONTARIO ON AUGUST 20.
--------------------------
==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==
NOTE THAT ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS CONDUCTED A DAMAGE SURVEY IN THE
GRAVENHURST AREA TODAY, AND HAS CONFIRMED THAT ANOTHER TORNADO
OCCURRED DURING THE STORMS LAST THURSDAY. THIS TORNADO WAS RATED
F0. THIS BRINGS THE TOTALS THUS FAR TO 5 CONFIRMED TORNADOES, PLUS 1
PROBABLE TORNADO AND 1 POSSIBLE TORNADO.
A TRIPLE BARRELLED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK STRUCK ONTARIO
THURSDAY.
SHORTLY AFTER NOON A SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH
OF LAKE HURON. THIS CELL TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD FOR A REMARKABLE 200
KM PRODUCING THE DURHAM AND THORNBURY TORNADOES. THE STORM
CELL FINALLY WEAKENED OVER GEORGIAN BAY TOWARD EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THEN
TRACKED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS FEATURE PRODUCED STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO SEVERAL
LOCALES FROM WINDSOR TO WELL NORTHEAST OF TORONTO AS WELL AS THE
DESTRUCTIVE VAUGHAN AND NEWMARKET TORNADOES.
FINALLY IN THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPED
NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN BAY AND TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD TO PRODUCE A
POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER THE AREA BETWEEN ARNSTEIN AND NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS A WATERSPOUT OVER LAKE NIPISSING.
THERE WAS ONE FATALITY WITH THE TORNADO IN THE SOUTH END OF DURHAM.
SEVERAL OF THE TORNADOES WERE RATED AS F2 DAMAGE ON THE FUJITA
SCALE. F2 DAMAGE IS EQUIVALENT TO WIND STRENGTH OF 180 TO 250 KM/H.
THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF TORNADOES AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGE ASSESSED
BY FOUR SEPARATE ENVIRONMENT CANADA STORM DAMAGE TEAMS.
--------------------------
DATE
TORNADO LOCATION/PATH
TORNADO 1(CONFIRMED) 5 KM SW OF DURHAM TO MARKDALE
F2 TORNADO DAMAGE
(ROUGHLY 20 KM)
(SIGNIFICANT HOUSE+ TRAILER DAMAGE, TREES DOWN)
TORNADO 2(CONFIRMED) FROM SOUTH OF THORNBURY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THORNBURY (PATH LENGTH UNKNOWN)
F2 TORNADO DAMAGE
(DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME)
TORNADO 3(CONFIRMED) WOODBRIDGE/VAUGHAN
(SEVERAL KM LONG + 50 METRES WIDE)
F2 TORNADO DAMAGE (HUNDREDS OF HOMES DAMAGED, TREES DOWN,CARS FLIPPED)
TORNADO 4(CONFIRMED) NEWMARKETAREA F1 TORNADO DAMAGE (HOCKEY ARENA ALMOST DEMOLISHED)
TORNADO 5(CONFIRMED) GRAVENHURST AREA
F0 TORNADO DAMAGE (PATH ABOUT 10 KM LONG
AND UP TO 1 KM WIDE)
(SHALLOW ROOTED TREES DOWN)
TORNADO 6(PROBABLE) ARNSTEIN TO RESTOULE TO NORTH BAY WATERSPOUT/TORNADO(PATH LENGTH UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME)
SIGHTINGS (DAMAGE DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME)
TORNADO 7(POSSIBLE) MILTON
F1 DAMAGE
(SOME ROOF DAMAGE)
Many of you have asked me what the difference is between a watch or a warning and why a warning is dropped while crazy weather is still going on. So I thought I would take time to explain it for you.
First off.... Environment Canada is the only agency that can issued watches or warnings in Canada. This cuts down on any confusion that may occur.
Severe Thunderstorm
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is issued when conditions are likely for the development of thunderstorms, some of which may become severe thunderstorms with large hail, heavy rain, or damaging winds and possibly tornadoes within the areas and times specified in the watch. You should use this time to secure loose objects, shelter animals, ensure family members or co-workers are prepared to take action and listen carefully for an updated weather report. This is the time to develop a plan.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be issued as much as 6-12hours in advance if conditons are favourable.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning
is issued when a severe storm has developed, producing one or more of the following conditions: flooding rain, destructive winds with gusts greater that 90 km/h, hail of at least 10 to 20 mm in diameter . Severe thunderstorms may also produce tornadoes. The storm’s expected motion and developments will be given in the warning. If you are in the area specified, take shelter.
A severe Thunderstorm Warning is usually only issued up to 1hour in advance.
So.... Simply put, Watches give you a "Head's Up", while Warnings alert you that severe weather is occuring or is imminent.
First off.... Environment Canada is the only agency that can issued watches or warnings in Canada. This cuts down on any confusion that may occur.
Severe Thunderstorm
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is issued when conditions are likely for the development of thunderstorms, some of which may become severe thunderstorms with large hail, heavy rain, or damaging winds and possibly tornadoes within the areas and times specified in the watch. You should use this time to secure loose objects, shelter animals, ensure family members or co-workers are prepared to take action and listen carefully for an updated weather report. This is the time to develop a plan.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be issued as much as 6-12hours in advance if conditons are favourable.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning
is issued when a severe storm has developed, producing one or more of the following conditions: flooding rain, destructive winds with gusts greater that 90 km/h, hail of at least 10 to 20 mm in diameter . Severe thunderstorms may also produce tornadoes. The storm’s expected motion and developments will be given in the warning. If you are in the area specified, take shelter.
A severe Thunderstorm Warning is usually only issued up to 1hour in advance.
So.... Simply put, Watches give you a "Head's Up", while Warnings alert you that severe weather is occuring or is imminent.
Ontario Weather Source.com's Notes
White Christmas???Dec 16, 2009
TORNADO OUTBREAK SUMMARY from August 20thAug 23, 2009
WATCH OR WARNING.... What is the difference.Aug 10, 2009
COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE COMING WINTER - Forecast ideas for the winter of 2009-2010Jul 15, 2009
Special Weather Statement - JUNE 29th 2009 - Possible funnel clouds todayJun 29, 2009
Are we going to have a summer??Jun 17, 2009