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The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a weak El Nino to develop this winter (slightly elevated sea surface temperatures near the east central equatorial Pacific Ocean). As seen in the graphic below, there is not much correlation between this phenomenon and rainfall amounts at San Diego and surrounding areas. Moderate and strong El Nino events have a much better correlation to above average rainfall for San Diego and Southern California. Years listed contain rainfall data at Lindbergh Field from July to July during past weak El Nino events.