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  • Despite previous analysis to the contrary, with the escalation of rh...etoric and action (e.g. South Korea stating the desire to build bunker busting ballistic missiles and special forces "kill teams") will North Korea be goaded into initiating actual military conflict out of fear that the United States and South Korea are moving to a buildup of forces that appear increasingly to provide a preemptive strike capability? See more
  • Kevin Thompson
    Yesterday at 10:47
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  • Kyllein MacKellerann
    4 September at 10:13
    Possibly North Korea is "spoiling" their test flights to present a f...alse appearance of unreliability. Deception is the primary method of effective warfare and we are still at war with North Korea; truce aside. See more
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Johannes Jahns
· 2 September 2017
Very well thought out information and coverage on the issue and complexities, particularly the latest paper of Amb. Joseph DeThomas.
What is missing though and ...has been for many years, is a sound strategy of the main stakeholders on how to avoid the catastrophe of a potential military confrontation in the NEA region. Action or inaction in this regard, may of course be intended or unintended, problem now being, that matters seem to have gotten out of hand and we are facing a sort of "Sum of all Fears" scenario.
None of the papers made available offer a plausible forward strategy and vision, although there are possible peaceful solutions.
The obvious reality is that leaders attempt to manage the DPRK crisis on a day-to-day basis, result being that parties almost irreversibly slide deeper and deeper into a military confrontation, which no doubt will result in a nuclear exchange.
The main host of any possible solution, no doubt, is China.
Extraordinary strategic values are at stake though for all players, while the solution will demand major concessions on the part of the United States, if war is to be avoided.
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Eric Thatcher
· 4 September 2017
Like it or not our problems with North Korea are in the back of all of our minds. 38 North offers offers an insightful view of the ongoing situation without the media hype and hysteria.
Kyllein MacKellerann
· 4 September 2017
Well done and clear to non-rocket scientists. Also helps the understanding of what's going on inside the "Kim Wall."
Petru Rusu
· 29 August 2017
Has balanced analyses.
Posts

President Trump's aggressive rhetoric towards North Korea and recent threats to pull out of the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) not only undermine US credibility with its allies, but also play into Pyongyang's strategic interests, writes Andray Abrahamian. Read the latest at USKI's 38 North.

Three generations of North Korea’s Kim family have dreamed of getting the United States off the Korean peninsula. Now, the…
38north.org

Retired US foreign service officer Jeff Baron interviews Japanese expert Mitsuhiro Mimura on social and economic changes observed over his 45 visits to the DPRK across two decades. Read the interview at USKI's 38 North.

Fluent in Korean and a specialist in North Korea’s economy, Mitsuhiro Mimura has visited North Korea 45 times since 1996,…
38north.org
Posts

In this first look at North Korea's Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, multiple landslides are visible in initial post-test commercial satellite imagery. Additional assessments are forthcoming as higher resolution imagery becomes available. Read the latest at USKI's 38 North.

Commercial satellite imagery from Planet, obtained the day after North Korea conducted its largest test to date (currently estimated in…
38north.org

In this second installment on getting tough on North Korea, Amb. Joseph DeThomas lays out critical elements, including sanctions enforcement, deterrence, diplomatic tracks and consistent messaging from Washington, to shape a viable policy to tackle the North Korea nuclear challenge. Read the latest analysis at USKI's 38 North.

In Part I of this series, I argued that advocates for “getting tough on North Korea” were prone to adopt…
38north.org

North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. Preliminary seismic readings indicate that the test device's yield was the DPRK's largest yet at around 120 kilotons--six times that of its last test in September 2016. While further information is still needed for a more complete post-test assessment, the latest test clearly demonstrates Pyongyang's progress and the increased threat it poses to the region. Read the latest at USKI's 38 North.

At approximately 03:30 UTC (noon DPRK time) on September 3, 2017 North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Institute conducted its largest and…
38north.org

38 North Co-Founder Joel Wit on #NorthKorea's sixth nuclear test

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Amb. Joseph DeThomas evaluates assumptions about the “get tough” approach to North Korea, and using Iran and Iraq as models for sanctions. Read the latest at USKI's 38 North.

As North Korea moves closer to its goal of being able to target key parts of the United States with…
38north.org

Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea's Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site indicate the site continues to be in a state of readiness. It cannot, however, corroborate recent reports that a potential nuclear test may be imminent. Read the latest and view imagery at USKI's 38 North.

On Monday, August 28, 2017, media reports began surfacing which claimed that South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) had informed…
38north.org

While it's unclear as to why North Korea's latest missile test flew a limited distance of 2,700 km and broke into three pieces, Michael Elleman points to the possible employment of a post-boost vehicle (PBV). If so, this could signal the DPRK is seriously developing nuclear-tipped missiles capable of striking the US mainland. Read the latest analysis at USKI's 38 North.

While North Korea’s missile test on August 28, reportedly of the intermediate range Hwasong-12 (KN-17), broke up into three pieces…
38north.org

While South Korean President Moon Jae-in has enjoyed domestic success in his first 100 days in office, he is struggling in pursuing his North Korea policy. John Delury reviews Moon's strategic vision and the challenges that lay ahead. Read the latest at USKI's 38 North.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in has enjoyed remarkable domestic success during his first hundred days in office. Elected in May…
38north.org

As sensationalist media reports on prospects of a future North Korean underground nuclear test triggering a catastrophic volcanic eruption resurface, Frank Pabian points to precedent to allay concerns. Read the latest at USKI's 38 North.

Sensationalist media reports continue to resurface with frightening headlines concerning the potential for a future North Korean underground nuclear test…
38north.org

Georgy Toloraya breaks down the gap in policy perspectives between Russia and the US when it comes to solving the issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons program and offers recommendations for moving forward. Read the latest at USKI's 38 North.

The current crisis between the United States and North Korea is drawing major countries into its orbit, including neighboring Russia.…
38north.org

As the US increases pressure on ASEAN states to isolate North Korea, questions loom over the future of DPRK-Myanmar relations. Andray Abrahamian and Wai Moe examine key aspects of the relationship and future directions. Read the latest at USKI's 38 North.

North Korea’s relationship with Myanmar[1] gets significant scrutiny in the international community, especially from the United States. Ambassador Joseph Yun,…
38north.org

Michael Elleman analyzes photos of Kim Jong Un's visit to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defence Sciences, to see what may be in the works for North Korea's ballistic missile program. Read the latest at USKI's 38 North.

Photos of Kim Jong Un’s recent visit to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defence Sciences revealed machinery…
38north.org

Leon V. Sigal parses the narrative of nuclear diplomacy between the US and DPRK, underscoring pressure with negotiations was far more effective than solely sanctions and isolation. Read the latest at USKI's 38 North.

Nuclear diplomacy with North Korea has a bad history by most journalistic accounts. That bad history, however, is mostly just…
38north.org