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Videotranskription
Hi and welcome to this Facebook Live Studio dialogue at Racino 2020. I'm Vikram Singh and I'm here to talk to you about Asiana is Ozzie undivided. I am joined by to my immediate left. Lynn Quack Shangri-La Dialogue, Senior Fellow for Asia and Pacific Security at Double Double L S in Singapore and by Satori visiting fellow PHD with the specializes in India's military strategy at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC. Welcome to both of you thanks for joining us. thanks for having thank you very much. so the question before us is how is Ozzie doing and governance in the Asia Pacific modeled on an Asian centrality concept. How is that Fairing in the era of very changing geopolitics and so I'm gonna start with land. China is challenging Asian's ability to maintain its consensus to some degree, particularly around issues of the South China Sea and security issues as opposed to economic issues where the block seems to be functioning. Well, How do you evaluate? In terms of its unity and its strategic relevance in the region today, I think what we need to point out. first of all is that even without the China factor has never been in a unified lot. I think what we need to understand is that it's an Association of Nations States each with rather different perceptions of where the National interest slide. so even without China coming into the fray, I think we've had difficulties in the past and unity was more often the exception rather than the norm we saw a. Display of unity in the wake of Vietnam's intervention in loss it's sorry in Cambodia at the end of 1970 -eight but that was a Red display of unity with really came together and voice here at position and stance on the issue. I think what we should note, however, is that China has also through its actions. Successfully exploited those differences so even you know some of the more some of the more obvious examples. I think that we all should know of is that you know in 2012, the failed to issue a joint communicate on the South China Sea simply because China had leaned on its its close ally and friend in Cambodia to ensure that that statement referencing wearing developments in the South China Sea were left out and then in 2016. Less well-known example, we had Cambodia knows and claimants in the South China Sea when I actually joined on into this course of voices that said that you know the South China Sea is really just an issue for our bilateral countries, but not for us as a whole and in the wake of the South China Sea Tribunal ruling in 2016, What I thought would happen. Imminently sensible would be for us to stay say that you know this is an important ruling in all countries here to it. Because of concerns about China's response failed to even reference this tribunal ruling. so I think this is why they're disturbing in terms of you know the extent to which we can rely on speaking it as one voice on security challenges in the region. so Toro do you agree that Asiana is is this fragmented over the security issues and do you think that there's a path to finding more unity in Asian as it faces some challenges from China. It is not easy to Unite was not easy for us to unite the effort because you have already mentioned to that through is more wider than the you, for example, when we checked their territory area of the Indonesia included between Iran and Iran and the sides of the Indonesia is the same with you so more diabetes more difficult to integrate. That's true, but in the so by using such constitution, China has committed to divide us for a long time. That's also true and they succeeded in some part, but the recent returners effort forced a tough situation. That's also through to because most important key factor is the United States policy current US change policy and more policy they choose and so. it is not easy ah China by the ah this is my opinion is interview so um so that's interesting you brought in the in the United States here so in in terms of in terms of China stand ah Asian nation standing up to China you see them doing it individually but ah you know where it concerns their specific issues and sometimes you see them working together but you have get to see sort of Asian as a whole stand together ah in the Of opposing Chinese claims in the in the South China Sea, For example, do you agree with Santoro that the US position is critical to whether he finds more or less unity. Yes, I think the US does play a role. It's not the only factor that we have to look at in considering unity, but I think it does play a very important role and I think it's very important that the United States demonstrate its presence. It started to do that a little bit. I think with the. In the Pacific strategy but I think you know putting flesh on the bones of that strategy has been slow in coming so I think it can still do more. and if we look at the context within which the United States is operating, so it came, it's it's been slow to respond. I think if we look at the context, what do we see in terms of developments in the region, which are playing on the mind of Southeast Asian countries? What we see is that since 2013 since the end of 2013, we've seen China actually start to build artificial islands in the South China Sea out of small rocks and reefs you know by the end of 2017 and I had operational naval and air facilities on these features in the South China Sea and by 2018, it was militarizing these features now some naval experts say that you know the US could easily take out any of these features in the event of a hot war but short of a world. What do we have? We have militarized features in the backyard of Southeast Asian countries, and this is. Definitely going to have you know influence over how they seek to behave Visa via China. These are the the United States of these each other whether or not they stand United or they fall apart because they have militarized features in their backyard. so the US has I think demonstrated positive signs of you know taking more of a role in the region, but it comes in fits and starts and I think it could afford more. More commitment more persistence, Perhaps this is a good way of putting it. Yeah. The United States has certainly been doing more freedom of navigation operations and more multilateral activities. There are a lot of mini lateral alliances instructors developing too where they're sort of add hock cooperation on the military aspect. So total you look at military military strategy in the region, particularly India's could you tell us a. Bit about how you think India views the South China Sea issue and what its role is from sort of Port Blair looking that direction and is it going to collaborate with United States, Australia, Japan and others to support this notion of a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is sort of the US strategy at this point. What long time India forgot how important self Genesee is it because the Indian India is a great power in the Indian Ocean so Indiana but at the same. Enter it South Tennessee is out of India so a little far from the India so but when India face China South Genesee is the key and the when we check says in the Pacific strategy, which aid Center of the Indo-Pacific in the Pacific in Japan, Australia, India included in the one in the Pacific Center is South is easier the South Genesee and after China. China can go to Japan Australia India this is a centre so that is the reason is very important now in the India has the potential to because India hearts Andaman Nicobar iron which is the base to deploy the post in the society so if in India start to focusing on how important is important India can do many things so this is India's ah decision you will react yeah just on India's role um I think actually mentioned about you know the capacity that India ah could bring to burn the issue of the South China C umm but I think the other question of courses the political will that India has to actually ah deploy you know its forces ah in the South China C and I think while India is real The importance of the South China Sea in terms of its own security as well in the Indian ocean. I think you know the extent of his efforts are still more limited to its own backyard, namely the Indian Ocean and we look at its 2015 maritime security strategy. the South China Sea was clearly identified as a sphere of secondary concern, The Indian Ocean so that might change and I think I agree with my colleague here that it should change, but it hasn't yet changed. Then we if we look at India's multilateral exercises as well with Japan. The United States if Australia's involved India reframes from participating so India has been quite careful about not being too caught up in the security frameworks that the United States is setting the Center of the court might be interested in pushing for at the same time. The quads been elevated to a ministerial level dialogue and they certainly discuss China's role in the region and the South China Sea. So there seems to be more coordination between those those big powers, but more from the. More from a diplomatic perspective, I think which is probably more comfortable for the Indians in your opinion so that the Chinese would say look we've this is our natural area and to many observers now they have kind of achieved their exerting of power into the first island chain. They sort of achieve their objective to some degree, and they probably believe that there will be acquiescence in the region to their role, including their military role in the region and they say, but they shouldn't concern any. It's still free. It's still open Commerce goes on. We have no interest in in in you know disrupting any of that. How do you think Asian as a whole and the member States should view the Chinese position and how do you think allies and friends elsewhere should be with you first and Institute I think well I I just went to a little bit what you said. I think while it's true. China largely controls the South China Sea. I would say that is the case for more than territorial features in the South China Sea. In terms of the maritime space, we've seen you know you the United States as well as its partners funds, you know the UK Australia apply the waters of the South China Sea. And so while China's control is extensive in the South, China Sea and it suddenly holds a strong hand, it has a strong hand. I think you know all is not lost so the United States. Other allies and partners have been assessing maritime rights and freedom, so there is still that balance there in the South China Sea. so your question was how should be should respond to that Chinese position that don't work. We're just doing what's natural and don't worry about it. We're not wanting to disrupt you. How should they view that reassurance the Chinese reassurance festival. I think that's probably quite enough able because it's quite clear that you know China has you know sent hundreds of vessels into the water. For the pins occupied territories, for instance, this happened in the first half of last year, it sent you know survey vessels to conduct seismic activities in Vietnam's E said. when you know, the the the phrase is that exclusive economic zones means it's exclusive to the coastal state and in the case of Malaysia continues to maintain a near constant Coast guard presence around Malaysian occupied features. so I think that if any of the Southeast Asian countries actually believed that they had nothing to worry about. I think that would be laughable and I really doubt that there would be that degree of negativity, so certainly I think they're worried and they were beginning to see instances of pushback, but I don't want to overstate that push back because Southeast Asian countries are still very much pushing back against China, but within the limits of ensuring good relations with a powerful neighbor, as well as wanting to ensure that economic ties remain good and the to the various countries can prosper that economic cooperation. So critical, they're the biggest trading partner for all of these countries, of course, is China and will be for the foreseeable future in our last 30 seconds. So Toro is the is the is are they are the Southeast Asian Nations basically, depending now on standing alone against China when they face these challenges. Standing our own will not work in my exceptional case. It's a bit bitter is very strong, but yes, most cases it is impossible to do as a country should unite therefore, and not only that a country to Japan, Australia and most important India and the United States should cooperate each other to deal with China. China is a big country big stretch in China's Rya. has ordered the mentioned they wouldn't know set artificial they built is not purpose but now we can see many thirty base so China we need to deal with this we should integrate our effort that is very important so आज centrality and unity as as critical as ever it's highly challenge thank you both for really stimulating discussion thank you for watching us here at I seen a twenty twenty and see you soon
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