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--- Long Range Discussion – Pattern Change ---
(IMAGE 1 - U.S. Temps vs. Avg... January so far)
The first 19 days of January have been ridiculously cold! Just ...look at the eastern US, it’s been stuck in the freezer for all of 2018 so far!
We’ve had the arctic air pouring into the eastern US for most of the month, and even with a mini thaw last week factored in… Poughkeepsie is still 5.3° below average for the month of January! That’s pretty incredible stuff. But the constant ridge of high pressure out west… and the deep trough over the eastern US… are expected to flip flop in the coming week.
(IMAGE 2 - Projected Jet Stream Next Week)
Now this is a pattern we haven’t seen in a while (well… we saw it last week for a day or two with the mini-thaw). But this pattern looks more and more likely to set up in the coming days… and persist for a week or two. Now, there will be brief cold fronts, and rain events mixed in there. But instead of the dominant pattern being cold and dry, we’ll see the jet stream pattern above be the dominant trend. So starting this weekend, each time a cold front pushes through… the pattern will quickly seek to return to the one you see above… a ridge in the east, and the cold trough out west. That means limited chances for snow in the Hudson Valley the next week or two. It doesn’t mean it CAN’T snow… but it will sure be less likely.
The big question is, "How long will this mild pattern persist?"
Is it 1 week… 2 weeks… a month… the rest of winter?!?
Our preliminary estimates have it lasting for probably a week or two. As we move into February, the pattern likely begins to transition back toward a colder pattern across the eastern US. That means a ridge redeveloping out west, and a dip in the jet stream over the eastern US once again... which will open the arctic gates once again. So for you snow lovers… the next 1 to 2 weeks may be tough… but rest easy… winter WILL be back for the month of February.
Thanks for reading... and if you like this kind of content, be sure to check out our website, www.hudsonvalleyweather.com . We have a lot more room to go into a lot more detail and discussion. We really appreciate all the support!
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