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@JaimeTraversWx 9:33 am CDT
Strong to severe storms possible this late this afternoon/early evening into the overnight hours. Large hail and strong winds are the main concerns but a tornado or two will be possible, especially west of St. Louis. @FOX2now @FOX2morning #STLwx #MOwx #ILwx

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TODAY 4/12
Probably no severe thunderstorms. TORCON near zero

FRIDAY 4/13
Severe thunderstorms in IA, MO, AR, east KS, east OK, east TX, west and north LA,extreme west-central IL, spreading overnight into west and north MS, west half TN, west KY, south IL, northwest AL. TORCON - 5 north LA, northeast TX, east OK, AR, MO except southeast; 4 - IA, southeast MO, MS; 3 - southeast TX, east KS, west-central IL; 2-3 rest of area.

...

An upper trough spawns a surface low near the KS/NE border that pulls moist, unstable air as far north as a warm front in central IA. A moderately strong low-level jet in the warm sector gives shear more than enough for tornadoes. It appears that supercells will form, gradually increasing in coverage and into a squall line overnight.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions:

8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

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Dr. Greg Forbes

TODAY 4/12
Probably no severe thunderstorms. TORCON near zero

FRIDAY 4/13
Severe thunderstorms in IA, MO, AR, east KS, east OK, east TX, west and north LA,extr...eme west-central IL, spreading overnight into west and north MS, west half TN, west KY, south IL, northwest AL. TORCON - 5 north LA, northeast TX, east OK, AR, MO except southeast; 4 - IA, southeast MO, MS; 3 - southeast TX, east KS, west-central IL; 2-3 rest of area.

An upper trough spawns a surface low near the KS/NE border that pulls moist, unstable air as far north as a warm front in central IA. A moderately strong low-level jet in the warm sector gives shear more than enough for tornadoes. It appears that supercells will form, gradually increasing in coverage and into a squall line overnight.

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SATURDAY 4/14
Severe thunderstorms in southeast LA, MS except northwest, west and middle TN, AL, west FL panhandle, west and central KY, south IL, south IN. TORCON - 3 in LA, MS, AL, FL areas; 2 to 3 rest of region. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in east-central and northeast IL, north and central IN, west OH. TORCON - 2 or less

It seems likely that a line of thunderstorms with embedded damaging gusts and circulations that could spawn tornadoes. The upper trough ...is slow-moving, and the numerous storms may hold down instability, which also weakens as the storms head eastward. There may be enough instability near the surface low in IL and IN for afternoon severe thunderstorms if the sun breaks through.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions
8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

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Dr. Greg Forbes

SATURDAY 4/14
Severe thunderstorms in southeast LA, MS except northwest, west and middle TN, AL, west FL panhandle, west and central KY, south IL, south IN. TO...RCON - 3 in LA, MS, AL, FL areas; 2 to 3 rest of region. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in east-central and northeast IL, north and central IN, west OH. TORCON - 2 or less

It seems likely that a line of thunderstorms with embedded damaging gusts and circulations that could spawn tornadoes. The upper trough is slow-moving, and the numerous storms may hold down instability, which also weakens as the storms head eastward. There may be enough instability near the surface low in IL and IN for afternoon severe thunderstorms if the sun breaks through.

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FRIDAY 4/13
Severe thunderstorms spreading eastward from morning into evening in west and central IA, extreme east NE, east KS, east OK, east TX, west and north LA, AR, west, central and northeast MO, TORCON - 5 in south IA, MO, AR areas; 4 rest of area, except 3 north IA. Severe thunderstorms may spread overnight into east MO, west-central and south IL, west KY, west TN, northwest MS. TORCON - 3. A chance that the overnight storms will spread into northeast, central and sout...hwest MS, southeast LA. TORCON - 2 to 3. Locally heavy rain in the above areas.

The approach of an upper trough prompts a low central in eastern KS and NE and northward flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as far as a warm front in central IA. Low-level wind shear will be more than enough for tornadoes in this moist flow, but morning showers and numerous afternoon thunderstorms may hold down instability. Additionally, the upper trough does not appear to have an eastward surge to bring in colder air aloft, again holding down instability.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions:

8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

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Dr. Greg Forbes

FRIDAY 4/13
Severe thunderstorms spreading eastward from morning into evening in west and central IA, extreme east NE, east KS, east OK, east TX, west and north... LA, AR, west, central and northeast MO, TORCON - 5 in south IA, MO, AR areas; 4 rest of area, except 3 north IA. Severe thunderstorms may spread overnight into east MO, west-central and south IL, west KY, west TN, northwest MS. TORCON - 3. A chance that the overnight storms will spread into northeast, central and southwest MS, southeast LA. TORCON - 2 to 3. Locally heavy rain in the above areas.

The approach of an upper trough prompts a low central in eastern KS and NE and northward flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as far as a warm front in central IA. Low-level wind shear will be more than enough for tornadoes in this moist flow, but morning showers and numerous afternoon thunderstorms may hold down instability. Additionally, the upper trough does not appear to have an eastward surge to bring in colder air aloft, again holding down instability.

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@stormchaser4850 4/5/18
NOTE: No warning issued for a long-tracked STRONG EF-2 #tornado in #illinois on Tuesday; tracked across parts of Fayette/Effingham counties. (@NWSStLouis never issued warning; @NWSLincolnIL issued warning after it lifted) #ILwx #YouMayNotAlwaysGetAWarning

https://www.weather.gov/lsx/04_03_2018

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Capable of flattening entire neighborhoods and taking many lives, a tornado's winds can reach speeds of up to 300 mph.
accuweather.com

JC Fultz @jcfultz 9:23 PM CDT
Damage caused by a possible tornado along Illinois 185 in Fayette County, Illinois Tuesday evening. #ilwx

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Johnny Kelly @stormchaser4850 7:25 PM CDT
****Homes reported damaged and or destroyed in earlier #TORNADO in #SalineCounty #Illinois in #Galatia #ILwx area (6:12 PM CDT)****

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PAH cancels Tornado Warning for Gallatin, White [IL] and Posey [IN] and Henderson [KY]

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@TylerABC57 6:43 PM CDT
Likely tornado west of Evansville heading east northeast. #ilwx #inwx

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Tornado Warning - National Weather Service Paducah KY
638 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a Tornado Warning for...Southeastern White County in southeastern Illinois...Northeastern Gallatin County in southern Illinois...Posey County in southwestern Indiana...West central Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky...

...

* Until 730 PM CDT

* At 637 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 10 miles west of Mount Vernon, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Evansville, Mount Vernon, Blairsville, New Haven and Maunie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 27/31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

TORNADO WATCH 27 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

...

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS:

EDWARDS

IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS:

ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
SALINE UNION WABASH
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON

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Tornado Warning - National Weather Service Paducah KY
629 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a Tornado Warning for...Central Massac County in southern Illinois...
Northwestern McCracken County in western Kentucky...

...

* Until 700 PM CDT

* At 629 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Metropolis, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Paducah, Metropolis, Brookport and Joppa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

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Tornado Warning - National Weather Service Paducah KY
622 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a Tornado Warning for...North central Massac County in southern Illinois...Central Pope County in southern Illinois...
Southeastern Johnson County in southern Illinois......
Northwestern Livingston County in western Kentucky...

* Until 700 PM CDT

* At 622 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over New Columbia, or 9 miles southeast of Vienna, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...Golconda, New Columbia and Dixon Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

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@CountyGibson 6:23 PM CDT
Strong rotation with this storm, take Shelter immediately. Tornado may be on the ground. Storm is moving more NE in my opinion. Posey and possibly Gibson counties need to be on alert.

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Tornado Warning - National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a Tornado Warning for...Southwestern White County in southeastern Illinois...Northeastern Saline County in southern Illinois...Southeastern Hamilton County in south central Illinois...
Northern Gallatin County in southern Illinois...

...

* Until 645 PM CDT

* At 617 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Eldorado, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Norris City, New Haven, Omaha and Maunie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

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