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Israelis: Who are you really voting for?

Which candidates will most likely be affected by your vote for the Knesset?


I've gone through the lists of candidates and extracted those in positions on the margins of electability, based on the last week's worth of published polls. Regardless of who heads the party, these are the people most likely to be affected by your vote. In the unlikely chance that your vote actually tips a Knesset seat from one party to another, the candidate who does or doesn't get in as a result will probably be on this list.


In some sense, these are the people you're really voting for or against, so pay attention.


I've included a few parties which are unlikely to cross the electoral threshold, but which polls give the greatest chance to. In order of likelihood (highest first), these are: Kadima, Otzma L'yisrael, Am Shalem, Aleh Yarok, Eretz Hadasha. If your vote tips one of these parties across the 2% mark, you'll bring candidates 1 and 2 into the Knesset at one fell swoop.


Finally, I should note the obvious: The identity of the marginal candidate you might elect is far from the only legitimate consideration in voting. The size of the party and its effect on coalition negotiations and legislative accomplishments is no less significant. But ultimately, the direct impact of your vote is in determining who's in and who's out. So it seems worthwhile knowing who that is.


Here goes:



        32    Carmel Shamah Hacohen

        33    Alex Miller

        34    Leon Litinsky

        35    David Bitton

        36    Uri Freij

        37    Yulia Malionovsky

        38    Katy Shitreet



        16    Daniel Atar

        17    Ghaleb Majadleh

        18    Nadia Hilu

        19    Nino Absadza


    Bayit Yehudi

        12    Shuli Mualem-Refaeli

        13    Hillel Ilan Horowitz

        14    Jeremy Gimpel

        15    Nachman Eyal

        16    Rahamim Nassimi

        17    Yitzhak Amitay Cohen

        18    Gila Finkelstein


    Yesh Atid

        8    Yoel Rezvozov

        9    Adi Kol

        10    Karine Elharar Hartstein

        11    Miki Levy

        12    Yasso Shimon Solomon

        13    Ruth Calderon

        14    Pnina Tamano-Shatta


    Hatnuah / Livni

        5    Meir Shitreet

        6    David Tzur

        7    Yoel Hasson

        8    Shlomo Mula

        9    Merav Cohen

        10    Orit Zuaretz



        10    Nissim Zeev

        11    Avraham Michaeli

        12    Yoav Ben-Tzur

        13    Lior Edri


    Yahadut Hatorah

        5    Eliezer Menachem Mozes

        6    Yisrael Eichler

        7    Yaakov Asher



        5    Issawi Freij

        6    Tamar Zandberg

        7    Avshalom Vilan



        3    Dov Henin

        4    Afu Agabaria

        5    Nabila Espanioli



        3    Basil Jetas

        4    Juma Azbarga

        5    Abd al-Rahim Fuqra



        3    Massud Ghnaim

        4    Taleb Abu-Arar

        5    Taleb Sana



        1    Shaul Mofaz

        2    Yisrael Hasson

        3    Yohanan Plessner


    Otzma Liyisrael

        1    Aryeh Eldad

        2    Michael Ben-Ari

        3    Baruch Marzel


    Am Shalem

        1    Haim Amsalem

        2    Moshe Tzarfati

        3    Reuven Agassi


    Aleh Yarok

        1    Yaron Lerman

        2    Shimri Messika

        3    Tzvi Tzveig


    Eretz Hadasha

        1    Eldad Yaniv

        2    Merav David

        3    Ran Blair