It's a FANTASTIC, record-breaking day! Enjoy the warm while it lasts... 'cause it's still winter. 😉
We have a new record high for February 20th! And the second-warmest February day EVER! Rain returns tomorrow and lasts through the weekend.
TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, warm and windy, midnight temps in the low-60s.
WEDNESDAY: rain and showers, embedded thunderstorms, falling temps, windy, midday temps in the mid-50s, falling into the 30s overnight.
THURSDAY: rain and showers, cooler, high 46....
FRIDAY: rain, high 58.
SATURDAY: showers and thunderstorms, high 64.
SUNDAY: morning rain then clearing, high 58.
The low-pressure is sitting right on top of Chicago this afternoon and the cold front trails down toward St. Louis. The strong southwest breeze ahead of it is pushing record-breaking warmth into Ohio. We blew past the daily record high (68°) by 11am and kept warming into the afternoon. The 2pm reading at KCMH was already at 76!
Warmest February Days in Columbus since 1878:
1. 78°F on 2/24/2017
2. 76°F on 2/20/2018 (preliminary)
3. 75°F on 2/26/2000
4. 74°F on 2/11/1999
5. 73°F on 2/25/1957
The warm air will remain in place this evening to give us a very mild end to the day. The cold front will push through the state in the morning with wind, rain, and cooler air. Temperatures will fall during the day Wednesday. We'll be in the low-60s at midnight, upper-50s during the morning commute, low-50s by lunchtime, in the low-40s after dinner, and in the mid-30s by midnight. It's going to be chilly again. The rain will be heavy at times, perhaps even with a rumble of thunder as the front comes through in the morning. I'm going to use a midnight temp of 62 as our "low" for tonight and a midday temp of 56 as our "high."
On Thursday, a high-pressure center in the Upper Great Lakes will do battle with a low-pressure center barreling up the western side of the Appalachians. We, of course, will be trapped in the middle with rain, downpours, and a chilly breeze from the east and northeast. Boosting the POPs to 60%. We get a break Thursday night as the low scoots away and the high lingers.
But we know better than to get used to it. Another low will approach from the southwest on Friday with yet another round of rain and downpours. Rainfall totals by the end of the week could reach 4 to 5 inches.
A warm front arrives on Saturday with yet another round of rain and a few thunderstorms. It's associated low-pressure center pounces on the state Sunday with strong winds before moving off to the northeast. We'll start to dry out Sunday evening. I'm going to add the thunder icon to Saturday.
By the time the sun comes blazing through on Monday, we'll be ready for a serious break from the rain.
It's wet. It's rainy. And it's going to stay that way most of the week. As a bonus, we're looking at some potentially record-setting warmth on Tuesday!
MONDAY NIGHT: scattered showers early then mostly cloudy, mild, low 59.
TUESDAY: mostly cloudy, rain main to the northwest, breezy, high 73.
WEDNESDAY: rain and showers, temps falling in the afternoon, early high 62....
THURSDAY: morning showers then clearing, cooler, high 48.
FRIDAY: turning overcast with showers late in the day, high 58.
SATURDAY: rain and showers, high 61.
SUNDAY: more rain (OMG, make it stop), high 58.
Keep an eye on river levels this week. We're expecting a lot of rain and the rivers are already running higher than normal. The additional runoff will push those levels higher with the potential for flooding. It may be time to dust off those plans for building an ark.
A warm front draped across northern Ohio is letting lots of mild air rush into the state along with very wet conditions. Some scattered showers are possible for the rest of the evening then the bulk of the rain shifts to northwestern Ohio for Tuesday. Columbus could get a few light showers but Toledo will get the brunt of it. I'm dropping Tuesday's POPs to 30%. The rush of warm air on Tuesday is likely to push our temperatures even higher, with highs in the low-70s likely.
The record high for February 20th is 68°F (2016 & 1891). That could be broken tomorrow.
Then the other shoe drops on Wednesday. The cold-front portion of this system will push though with showers, thunderstorms, and (depending on which solution you like) falling temperatures. The GFS, the NAM, and the RPM all disagree on timing; that timing is going to have a significant impact on the day's temperatures. The RPM is the earliest with storms pushing into the metro area by 7am. The NAM is leaning closer to 9am. And the GFS MOS holds it off until the evening (GFS raw is closer to the NAM). An early-morning FROPA makes the most sense and I'm leaning toward a mild blend with passage during the latter half of the morning commute. That means temps holding steady in the morning (upper-50s) then falling in the afternoon. Upping the POPs to 90%. A rumble of thunder isn't out of the question so I’m swapping in the t’storm icon. As we dip into the 30s overnight and Thursday morning, we may see some wintry mix embedded in the rain showers, especially north of I-71.
High pressure builds in briefly Thursday night.
Another, smaller, low-pressure center zips through the area on Friday with a cold front and another round of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Another warm front lifts in on Saturday with, you guessed it, more rain. Then, as the low plows through on Sunday, it will drag in some colder air behind it with the potential for wintry mix Sunday evening. The Euro, however, is pushing the rain out by Sunday morning. For now, let's go with rain but we'll keep an eye on the next few runs. Nicer on Monday.
What a difference 24 hours makes. Sheeesh. We're more than 30 degrees colder this afternoon than at the same time yesterday. It's going to be a chilly weekend with a little bit of rain and wintry mix.
FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy, much cooler, low 23.
SATURDAY: clouds return, snow, mix, and rain showers, starting southeast, high 38.
SUNDAY: clearing, partly cloudy, warmer, high 50....
MONDAY: rain and showers, high 63.
TUESDAY: rain and showers, mild, high 66.
WEDNESDAY: morning rain then clearing, cooler, high 48.
The front that passed through the area this morning helped pull the rain to the east and leave us with a grey, colder day. Colder air rushing in from the northwest has pushed our temperatures downward throughout the day. We'll keep cooling through Saturday morning.
High pressure will give us a break from the rain tonight and into Saturday morning. Then a low-pressure center will trundle through the southeastern US, pushing rain and wintry mix as far north as Central and Southeastern Ohio. The precip in Ohio is likely to start in the afternoon as snow showers, mainly south and east of US22 from Circleville to Lancaster to Zanesville. Temperatures will rise a bit in the evening with some changeover to wintry mix and rain along with the snow showers and spreading out across more of the state, tapering off before sunrise Sunday. Partly cloudy conditions persist on Sunday with high pressure helping with some clearing.
Our wet conditions continue into next week. A warm front lifts into the state on Monday with another round of rain and warmer temperatures. The models continue to push temps higher. We'll acquiesce and bump the high a few degrees for Monday and Tuesday.
Timing on Tuesday's frontal passage is a little different between the GFS and the Euro; the GFS is aiming for Tuesday night but the Euro holds it off until mid-morning Wednesday. Either way, though, we're very wet Tuesday and Wednesday. The Euro's solution leaves us in the warmer sector a little bit longer while the GFS's solution would allow for falling temps during the day Wednesday.
Wow! It's wet! But we don't have to shovel wet, so we're okay with it. Very mild temperatures will give way to much colder air on Friday. Get ready for another roller coaster-style change.
FLOOD WATCH in effect for most of Central, Eastern, and Southern Ohio until at least 2pm Friday.
THURSDAY NIGHT: rain and thunderstorms, occasional downpours, windy, mild, temps near 50 at midnight....
Broadcast Lake is blanketed with thick fog this afternoon as warm, humid air slides over the frozen surface of the water. It's beautiful and creepy at the same time. Warm air continues to stream into the area tonight and tomorrow.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: rain and showers, mild, low 49.
THURSDAY: rain, breezy, warmer, high 63.
FRIDAY: falling temps, rain changing to snow showers, little to no accumulation, midday temps in the upper-30s. Clearing in the evening....
SATURDAY: Early-morning sunshine then clouds, showers in the late-afternoon and evening, clearing overnight, high 41.
SUNDAY: partly cloudy, mild, high 50.
MONDAY: rain and showers, high 58.
TUESDAY: rainy and windy, falling temps, early high 62.
A small low-pressure center will ramble through the state on Thursday, bringing more rain and some warmer air. This one comes from the southwest. A cold front, attached to a different low racing through Ontario, will cross the state early Friday.
Both the NAM and the GFS are going with an early-morning, pre-sunrise FROPA, roughly 06-09Z. That means falling temps during the day. Midnight temps in the low-50s, midday temps in the upper-30s (with a very slight diurnal uptick the afternoon), and evening temps continuing to fall into the 20s. The GFS is tapering off the precip a little faster than the NGM but we should still escape any significant accumulations as the temps fall.
I'm going to adjust the numbers on the 7-Day to reflect the falling temps.
High pressure helps clear out some clouds and dry things out Friday night and Saturday morning. But the clouds return Saturday afternoon and more rain and wintry mix Saturday evening. The rain-snow line sets up along the I-70 corridor but snow showers won't produce much; southeastern Ohio will be soggy with rain.
The rain tapers off quickly Saturday night and high pressure provides us with a welcome break Sunday morning. Most of Sunday looks pleasant with temperatures creeping up a bit into the 50s.
We know better than to get used to it, though. A very strong warm front lifts into the region on Monday with downpours. We might even get some thunder with this one. The GFS shows a decent jet streak to our north/nw, putting us in the far, right-rear quadrant; it won't be great lift, but it might be just enough to give us a rumble or two. Front slides through early Tuesday and another low bashes us again on Wednesday with rain changing to snow showers. <sigh>
A cold day, like today, is okay as long as we have plenty of sunshine to go with it. We'll do some warming in the next few days but it'll come with some rain. Grab your umbrella!
TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, not as cold, low 35.
WEDNESDAY: overcast and grey, showers in the afternoon and evening, warmer, high 51.
THURSDAY: rain and showers, breezy and warmer, high 63....
FRIDAY: cloudy with showers, falling temps, rain changing briefly to snow, high 39.
SATURDAY: clouds then sun, high 41.
SUNDAY: partly cloudy, high 49.
We're on the back side of a high-pressure center tonight. It's the one that opened up the clouds and gave us all that beautiful sunshine today. We'll get some southerly flow on Wednesday and Thursday that will push our temperatures up even more.
Showers will move into the region with the warmer air by Wednesday afternoon. Temps will continue rising Wednesday evening and hold mostly steady during the overnight hours. The 12Z GFS is going even warmer on Thursday. It's optimistic but let's bump it to 63, splitting the difference with the NAM and agreeing with the RPM.
The showers will continue into Thursday as a low-pressure center slides into the state. A cold front will follow it on Friday with more rain. Behind the front, the precip should taper off quickly enough that we'll avoid much in the way of accumulation as the rain changes to snow showers. Friday's high will happen early in the day with falling temps in the afternoon.
Cooler air drops in for Saturday and high pressure will help us do some clearing. The tail end of a weak front washes through the state late Saturday night but doesn't look like it'll have much moisture with which to work. Forecast stays dry. High pressure rules the roost again on Sunday then we start the warm-up process again. A warm front lifts into Ohio by Monday evening and we'll be warmer and wetter. Again.
How awesome was that sunshine today?! Yay! We'll keep it going tomorrow and our temperatures will continue to warm up for the next few days.
MONDAY NIGHT: mostly clear, starry, cold, low 18.
TUESDAY: sun and clouds, mild, more melting, high 42.
WEDNESDAY: turning cloudy, rain by late afternoon, high 52....
THURSDAY: rain and showers, high 58.
FRIDAY: rain changing to wintry mix and snow showers, some light accumulations possible, high 38.
SATURDAY: clouds then clearing, mostly sunny, high 39.
A front dropped through the area earlier with some wintry mix that made roads in southeastern Ohio a little dicey. Now, high pressure is moving into the region to keep things quiet tonight and Tuesday.
Awesome International Space Station sighting opportunity this evening at 6:46pm! It will travel from just above the NW horizon to almost directly overhead and then down to the SE horizon. It’ll take six minutes for it to make the trip. Look for a “star” that moves steadily and quickly across the sky.
We'll get some good warm air advection behind the high on Wednesday. It will drive our temperatures up a bit more but it will also come with some rain. The showers will be here by the afternoon commute on Wednesday and will continue through Thursday as a cold front pushes through the area. Some of the rain will change to wintry mix and snow showers into Friday morning as the rain-snow line drapes itself along the I-71 corridor (again). The precip will push eastward and we'll be enjoying some high pressure again by Friday evening. That will provide calm conditions for most of the weekend.
Sunday evening we'll get another round of WAA and rain showers ahead of a cold front that arrives Monday morning.
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Let the melting begin! Today's warmer temperatures turned a lot of the snow into slush and we did some good melting this afternoon! Now, get ready for a wet weekend.
FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, cool, low 33.
SATURDAY: rain, mix, and snow, high 40.
SUNDAY: rain, mix, and snow, high 39....
MONDAY: partly cloudy, high 38.
TUESDAY: sun and clouds, high 45.
WEDNESDAY: sun then clouds, mild, high 47.
We have some fantastic warm air advection today that is boosting our temperatures and helping with all that melting. A lot of the snow is disappearing! We'll get rid of some more of it this weekend... at times.
Saturday and Sunday are going to be an on-and-off, back-and-forth combination of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow. On Saturday, a low-pressure center will slide up the western side of the Appalachians. So, once again, we'll see a dividing line through Central Ohio. For a majority of Saturday, the line will be roughly along I-71 with snow showers to the west, ice and freezing rain along the line, and rain to the east. The actual rain/snow line is likely to waver back and forth by 30-40 miles so plan on a little bit of all three kinds of precip. As the temperatures fall in the evening and the low moves farther to the northeast, some colder air will wrap in behind the system and we'll see the rain-snow line move into Eastern Ohio. Snow accumulations look minimal, less than an inch, at best.
Then we do it all again on Sunday with another, small low taking nearly the same path. The rain-snow line shows up along the I-71 corridor again for most of the day then moves east in the evening with falling temps and a broader area of snow showers. Accumulations look very small again.
High pressure returns on Monday to give us a break and to do some melting of whatever is leftover from the weekend. Temperatures will stay above-average for the rest of week! That said, the GFS and the Euro are suggesting Thursday highs in the 60s. That seems exceedingly optimistic even with the GFS aiming for good WAA ahead of a couple of dual low-pressure systems. Still not quite willing to buy into that yet. For now, let's boost the Wed and Thu highs, still keeping them at or under 50. We'll up the POPs for Thursday with both the GFS and the Euro calling for showers, albeit for different reasons.
Not quite as cold tonight, thank goodness. A new round of snow rolls in Friday but most of it will be to the north of Columbus; the city may get a little bit of snow but it'll be heavier north of Route 30.
THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, low 21.
FRIDAY: mostly cloudy, snow showers mainly north, very light accumulations in the I-70 corridor, 1"-3" in northern Ohio, high 39.
SATURDAY: snow to rain to snow with wintry mix in the process, high 40....
SUNDAY: rain, wintry mix, and snow, high 37.
MONDAY: partly cloudy, high 38.
TUESDAY: partly cloudy, warmer, high 45.
The RPM and the GFS are suggesting Friday's snow may come a little bit farther south, briefly all the way to I-70, but generally staying north of Rt 36-37. The 30% POPs look reasonable and let's keep the wording for "mainly north." Accumulations in the metro area, where there are any at all, won't be much more than a dusting to 1/4" with Marion and Bucyrus getting 1"-3". Toledo and Cleveland will take the brunt of this one. Despite the influx of warmer air on Friday, the model temps seem way too high given our current snowpack (the NAM is trying to go upper 40s). Let's keep it in the upper-30s and be happy if we pick up a few bonus degrees.
On Saturday, the GFS and Euro are pushing the freezing line much farther north, into far-northwestern Ohio, keeping us mainly in the rain sector. The RPM, though, is more consistent with previous forecast with highs in the upper-30s. Let's keep the wintry mix in Saturday's forecast because, at the very least, over the course of the day, we're likely to see a transition from snow showers to rain and back again. Bumping the POPs to 60%. As the low moves up the Appalachians on Sunday, it will pull in some colder air behind it and we'll see that back-and-forth transition again.
We do some clearing Monday as high pressure returns. By then, we'll have done some decent melting and we'll be more on track with the models. Boosting Monday's temps into the upper-30s. We'll continue to warm up on Tuesday and Wednesday as stronger high pressure arrives. Pulling down the POPs for Tuesday.
The GFS wants to bring in a cold front on Thursday with showers across the state. The Euro is aiming for a more northerly system. Confidence is low. For now, let's give it a 30% POP, a light-rain icon (changing to snow showers as the temps fall in the evening), and monitor for the next few runs.
So, now we’re in clean-up mode. Side roads and sidewalks are going to be snow-covered and slippery for a while yet. They’re not going to get much help from Mother Nature especially as we do some re-freezing tonight.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, cold, refreezing, low 12.
THURSDAY: icy patches, partly cloudy, cold, high 27.
FRIDAY: mostly cloudy, snow north of US30, high 39....
SATURDAY: morning sun then clouds, sctd. rain and wintry mix, high 40.
SUNDAY: overcast, rain, wintry mix, and snow showers, high 40.
MONDAY: partly cloudy, high 34.
Temps are already in the 20s this afternoon and, as they continue to fall, everything that is wet will begin to refreeze. That means icy patches for tonight and a slippery Thursday morning commute. Thankfully, with some high pressure in the region on Thursday, we’ll get a break from the wintry precipitation. Some sunshine will break through the clouds but don’t expect much melting with high temperatures in the mid-20s.
Friday’s disturbance should keep most of the snow to our north. There’s warm air advection at the surface getting some help from an extended area of upper-level lift from the jet stream. Northern Ohio looks to be right-rear under a fairly strong streak. That should give our northern viewing area a chance for some flurries and snow showers, generally north of Route 30. Columbus will be on the warmer end of things but our snow pack will keep temps a little lower than what MOS is suggesting.
Saturday begins with some sunshine but the clouds quickly fill in as a low-pressure center begins moving in from the south. It will push rain and wintry mix into the area (the 540 splits the DMA again) and we’ll see areas of rain, mix, and snow showers continue into Sunday as the low scoots up the Appalachians.
By the time high pressure returns on Monday, we’ll be ready for a break. Oy.