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An interesting view of the dynamics that can go on within a spot group. This video, created courtesy of Helioviewer.org, shows a closeup of NOAA Region 2544. Notice one of the intermediate spots move closer and closer to the leading, larger penumbra spot. As that spot approached closer to the leading penumbra spot, a C1 flare occurred at 16/0058 UTC.
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NOAA SWPC Regions 2445, near the NW limb (far upper right) and 2443, near central meridian (far lower left) continued to produce small C-class flares (below R1-Minor radio blackout levels) until 04/0326 UTC, when Region 2445 produced an impulsive M1 (R1-Minor radio blackout) flare. The imagery is courtesy of NASA's Solar Dynamic Observatory and helioviewer.com The flare was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep signature with a estimated shock speed of 790 km/s. A Type II sweep is often indicative of a likely coronal mass ejection (CME) shock wave. We are currently awaiting updated coronagraph imagery from the SOHO spacecraft to see if a CME did indeed occur in association with this event. The flare was also associated with a wide range of radio bursts, to include a "Tenflare" (a 10cm radio burst of intensity greater than 100% of the pre-burst value). Earlier today, Region 2445 developed a "delta" signature within its trailing penumbra (meaning additional stressing of magnetic field lines was likely - increasing the chances of a flare). Meanwhile a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming warning continues in effect due to the effects of the coronal hole high speed stream of CH18. Solar wind velocities are between 650-800 km/s. A G2 (Moderate) watch continues in effect for 4 November due to the strong solar wind speeds and disturbed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Any sustained periods of antiparallel IMF could escalate geomagnetic storming to G2 levels. Stay tuned to the SWPC website for additional information and updates: www.swpc.noaa.gov
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The S1 (Minor Solar Radiation Storm) has ended. Although proton flux levels remain slightly elevated above background levels, they are below warning levels and continue to slowly wane. SWPC forecaster expectations are that proton flux levels should return to background levels by 30-31 Oct. Meanwhile, although solar activity remains low, interesting events continue. The SDO/AIA image loop noted here shows the Sun in a wavelength conducive to observing the upper chromosphere. A filament lifted off from near south-central meridian and can be seen in this SDO/AIA-304 movie loop courtesy of NASA's SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) and helioviewer.org - erupting from the Sun. Although some plasma seems to have been reabsorbed, there are indications that some material might have achieved escape velocity and departed into space. SWPC forecasters are currently awaiting updated coronagraph imagery from the SOHO spacecraft in order to verify if a coronal mass ejection (CME) took place as part of this filament eruption or not; and if so, analytical and modeling tools will be employed to determine if there might be any Earth-directed component. Visit our webpage at www.swpc.noaa.gov for updated information.
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An EVA is in progress by ISS astronauts. You can follow the EVA at https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/#public … SWPC forecasters coordinate w/ NASA about space weather prior to an EVA, in particular about radiation storms - minimal radiation storm potential exists at this time. EVA ends by 1830 UTC

NASA Television provides live coverage of launches, spacewalks and other mission events, as well as the latest news briefings, video files, and the This Week @NASA report.
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A G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for 17 May 2018 due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

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The National Science and Technology Council has announced its intent to update the National Space Weather Strategy. A Request for Information (RFI) has been published in the Federal Register that seeks input from the public on ways to improve Federal government coordination of programs and activities to enhance national preparedness to space weather events. SWPC encourages all interested parties to review the RFI and provide feedback. The RFI can be accessed at https://www.federalregister.gov/…/developing-an-update-to-t…

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G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions observed at 06/0218 UTC. G2 Warning is valid until 06/0600 UTC.

Current solar cycle 24 is declining more quickly than forecast. The smoothed, predicted sunspot number for April to May, 2018 is about 15; however, the actual monthly values have been lower. Will solar minimum be longer than usual or might solar cycle 25 begin earlier? Leading solar and space science experts will convene a meeting in the coming years and attempt to predict solar cycle 25.

The “official” solar cycle forecast includes the month, year, and intensity of that maxi...mum (peak, average sunspot number). The consensus forecast is the result of collaboration by a solar cycle prediction panel of solar and space scientists from around the world. Typically, the panel considers all new, relevant research results, observation trends, and model predictions available when the panel is convened.

Just like hurricane season forecasts, solar cycle predictions have improved; however, there are still notable deviations in prediction versus actual activity. The previous solar cycle prediction panel’s forecast for solar cycle 24 called for a maximum average sunspot number of 90 to occur in May, 2013. After looking at the actual sunspot numbers and solar activity, it was determined the solar cycle 24 maximum was reached in April, 2014 and peaked at an average sunspot number of 82. While the peak value was within the expected range of error, the maximum occurred significantly later than the panel’s prediction.

We will update our webpage at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov with information about the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel’s prediction panel meeting as it approaches, and any predictions as they’re issued.

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G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels were observed again at 10:44 UTC (06:44 ET).

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels were observed at 08:25 UTC (04:25 ET) on 20 April.

A G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm warning has been issued until 12:00 UTC (08:00 ET) on 20 April.

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels were observed again at 06:50 UTC (02:50 Eastern) on 20 April.

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels were observed at 05:58 UTC (01:58 Eastern) on 20 April.

A G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm warning is in effect until 12:00 UTC (08:00 Eastern) on 20 April.

G1 storm levels reached at 0259 UTC (10:59pm ET). Warning continues until 11/0600 UTC (2:00am ET)

SWPC is modernizing to improve customer service. Beginning 10 April, we will temporarily add the 3-day Forecast to @NWSSWPC to evaluate the utility of Twitter to provide this service in the future.

A G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for 10-11 Apr 2018 due to the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS

A G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for 10 April 2018 due to the arrival of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.