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An interesting view of the dynamics that can go on within a spot group. This video, created courtesy of Helioviewer.org, shows a closeup of NOAA Region 2544. Notice one of the intermediate spots move closer and closer to the leading, larger penumbra spot. As that spot approached closer to the leading penumbra spot, a C1 flare occurred at 16/0058 UTC.
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NOAA SWPC Regions 2445, near the NW limb (far upper right) and 2443, near central meridian (far lower left) continued to produce small C-class flares (below R1-Minor radio blackout levels) until 04/0326 UTC, when Region 2445 produced an impulsive M1 (R1-Minor radio blackout) flare. The imagery is courtesy of NASA's Solar Dynamic Observatory and helioviewer.com The flare was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep signature with a estimated shock speed of 790 km/s. A Type II sweep is often indicative of a likely coronal mass ejection (CME) shock wave. We are currently awaiting updated coronagraph imagery from the SOHO spacecraft to see if a CME did indeed occur in association with this event. The flare was also associated with a wide range of radio bursts, to include a "Tenflare" (a 10cm radio burst of intensity greater than 100% of the pre-burst value). Earlier today, Region 2445 developed a "delta" signature within its trailing penumbra (meaning additional stressing of magnetic field lines was likely - increasing the chances of a flare). Meanwhile a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming warning continues in effect due to the effects of the coronal hole high speed stream of CH18. Solar wind velocities are between 650-800 km/s. A G2 (Moderate) watch continues in effect for 4 November due to the strong solar wind speeds and disturbed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Any sustained periods of antiparallel IMF could escalate geomagnetic storming to G2 levels. Stay tuned to the SWPC website for additional information and updates: www.swpc.noaa.gov
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The S1 (Minor Solar Radiation Storm) has ended. Although proton flux levels remain slightly elevated above background levels, they are below warning levels and continue to slowly wane. SWPC forecaster expectations are that proton flux levels should return to background levels by 30-31 Oct. Meanwhile, although solar activity remains low, interesting events continue. The SDO/AIA image loop noted here shows the Sun in a wavelength conducive to observing the upper chromosphere. A filament lifted off from near south-central meridian and can be seen in this SDO/AIA-304 movie loop courtesy of NASA's SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) and helioviewer.org - erupting from the Sun. Although some plasma seems to have been reabsorbed, there are indications that some material might have achieved escape velocity and departed into space. SWPC forecasters are currently awaiting updated coronagraph imagery from the SOHO spacecraft in order to verify if a coronal mass ejection (CME) took place as part of this filament eruption or not; and if so, analytical and modeling tools will be employed to determine if there might be any Earth-directed component. Visit our webpage at www.swpc.noaa.gov for updated information.
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G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions met at 23/1159 UTC.

Glancing blow CME arrived earlier today as anticipated. G1 Warning issued to 15/2100 UTC (1600 ET).

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A G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect for the 15 February UTC-day. Additionally, a G1 Watch is now in effect for 16 February. These watches are in response to geomagnetic reactions anticipated with effects of a transiting, glancing blow coronal mass ejection and the oncoming influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. If you want further details about our forecast, please visit swpc.noaa.gov or have a look at our forecast discussion and 3-day forecast. Both of these are updated twice a day at 0030 UTC (7:30 pm ET) and again at 1230 UTC (7:30 am ET). Click http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion for the discussion and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast for the forecast.

Usage Impacts Details History Data The product was designed to be a free form, technical forecast discussion that details observed data, analysis, and forecast rationale. Users of this product typically desire more information about the observed data supporting forecasts as well as a detailed explan...
swpc.noaa.gov

A G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for 15 February, 2018. The G1 Watch has been issued due to the likely response associated with the arrival of an asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME) glancing blow late on the 14 February to early 15 February UTC-days. The CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at 0125 UTC on 12 February (8:25 pm ET on 11 February). Current background solar wind speeds are slower than routine model predictions, so the forecast arrival timing of the CME has been slowed from the WSA-Enlil CME model run prediction. Continue to check swpc.noaa.gov, our nation's official source for forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts.

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A C1 solar flare occurred at 0135 UTC (8:35pm ET) on 12 February 2018, from Region 2699. An asymmetric halo CME was observed in LASCO/SOHO imagery is association with this flare. SWPC forecasters are busy analyzying the imagery and studying model forecast results. Initial analysis indicates the CME is likely Earth-directed with a preliminary arrival of 15 February. Please keep checking swpc.noaa.gov - the nation's official source of forecasts, watches and warnings - for the latest updates and expectations regarding this event.

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Region 2699 slowed it's growth and remained in a magnetically simple configuration (Beta); however, the region did erupt in a C8 Flare at 07/1347 UTC (0647am MT). Although the region managed to produce a flare just short of the R1 (Minor radio blackout) level, the region's flare probability will be likely be raised today, to keep a continued chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) today. Keep checking our swpc.noaa.gov page for more information and updated forecasts.

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Space weather has been quiet for some time now and there have been very few notable spot groups. However, over the past few days Region 2699 has continued to grow and become more interesting. Despite the growth, the region's magnetic complexity remains fairly simple and flare potential is weak; with a chance for C-class flares to continue over the next day or two. This spot group was the source for a C1 flare at 1858 UTC (1158 MT) today, 6 February. Continue to monitor flare and radio blackout probabilities by visiting our website swpc.noaa.gov Image courtesy of NASA.

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A G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Alert was issued at 14/0259 UTC www.swpc.noaa.gov/

A G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Warning is in effect from 14/0210-14/0900 UTC www.swpc.noaa.gov/

A WATCH for likely G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions has been issued for 01 Jan 2018 due to CH HSS effects.

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected to continue into the early (UTC) hours of 18 Dec as CH HSS influence persists.

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed at 17/0721 & 17/2027 UTC due to the effects of a CH HSS.

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions reached at 17/0721 UTC. G1 conditions expected through 17/1200 UTC

A watch for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions is valid for 18-19 Dec due to anticipated CH HSS effects.

A G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm WATCH is valid for 18 Dec due to the anticipated effects of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Solar wind conditions temporarily favorable for geomagnetic storming. Overall planetary G1 storming reached at 5/1407 UTC (0907 ET). G2 Warning issued through 5/2100 UTC (1600 ET).