- then, if the answer is in the affirmative, the Catalan government will be instructed, according to article 155 of the constitution, to reverse such declaration, to cease any actions tending towards declaring independence and to restore Spanish legality in full, by Oct 19, 10 am.

Clearly another crucial week has started in the conflict over Catalan self-determination. The Spanish government has issued a legal threat to use article 155 which allows for the state's intervention of Catalan autonomy.

The decision of the Catalan president to fudge the issue and call for negotiation was taken under enormous pressure of the Catalan capitalists, the EU and an important section of the leaders of Puigdemont's own party PDCAT. However this has been criticised by the CUP (which has threatened to withdraw from the Catalan parliament, a move that would leave Puigdemont with no parliamentary majority) and others within the independence movement. It has already created a split within the National Catalan Assembly (ANC) with its secretariat demanding a prompt declaration of independence while its secretary maintains a more conciliatory position towards Puigdemont.

On Saturday, there was a first gathering of over 200 representatives of 91 Committees for the Defence of the Referendum (the rank and file neighbourhood bodies created in the last few weeks which in many places played a key role in defending polling stations during the Oct 1 referendum). The CDR representatives met in Sabadell to discuss what further steps to take in the event of the application of article 155. (See PICS below)

Today, the leaders of both the ANC and Omnium (the two Jordis), as well as the major of the Catalan police Mossos, Trapero, have been summonsed to the National Audience (which deals with crimes against the state) in Madrid to be questioned again in the inquiry about "sedition" over the events of September 20 (when tens of thousands attempted to block the actions of the Civil Guard in arresting Catalan government officials and searching Catalan government buildings), which marked the beginning of mass civil disobedience. They could be arrested pending trial.

Among the options which the Rajoy government is considering in implementing article 155 (with full support from the PSOE, which has been promised a "parliamentary commission for the reform of the Constitution" which will end up in nothing), are the removal of the Catalan government to be replaced by either a technocratic government, direct rule by a MInister of the Spanish government, or an unelected multi-party government. These would rule Catalonia for 6 months and then there would be elections (prepared probably by the illegalisation of one or several of the pro-independence parties to be on the safe side).

In reality Puigdemont has very few options. Either he betrays the movement or he stands his ground and is removed by the Spanish state. In the first case it is not ruled out that the movement would go beyond him and refuse to accept the decision, opening a struggle for a Catalan Republic under a more left wing leadership. In the second case, the state's repression would certainly be met with fierce resistance and could spark an even more radical mass movement, including another country-wide stoppage, strikes and the further development of the CDRs.

He will probably try to find a way which shows him and his government as reasonable people who want to negotiate, while at the same time keeping his standing amongst the movement.

The three key elements in this equation are:
- the will of the Spanish state to prevent the right of self-determination from being exercised (as it would undermine the whole of the 1978 regime)
- the inconsistency of the bourgeois and petty bourgeois politicians at the head of the Catalan government in pursuing decisively the goal of an independent Republic (though they have been pushed much further than they anticipated by the movement of the masses and state repression)
- the irruption of the masses on the scene which can push the crisis onto a different plane

Other factors might come into play. The weak PP government in Madrid is now facing another crisis, that of the forest fires in Galicia, which have reached massive proportions exposing the policies of both the regional and national governments (both in the hands of the PP). A series of explosions of popular discontent in other parts of Spain could actually bring down the Rajoy government. Here the leaders of Unidos Podemos have a great responsibility and so far their position on the Catalan challenge has been extremely weak, with empty appeals for talks and negotiation between the two sides, rather than a clear cut defence of the Catalan right to self-determination as expressed in the Oct 1 referendum.