Round #2 is developing in AR now. It’s headed to the Northeast and will continue to develop into Southwest MO during the overnight hours. This particular batch may ave some embedded thunder in it and a few pockets of moderate rain is expected.
Another round will development toward morning and linger throughout the day as a Low meanders across the Ozarks.
It is raining in the Ozarks! A line of activity has been moving to the Northeast out of OK and AR and will continue its trek through our neck of the woods. There is some lightning noted on the Western portion of this line but not a whole lot around the Branson area.
Thanks for all the responses about the tremor! I haven’t found anything online that would point to an earthquake so I guess it was either blasting or a great big truck.
Now, back to weather… Our next system moves in Sunday evening. Activity will be developing around 5 PM and continue into the overnight hours through at least midday Monday. The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather way down in Southern AR, far away from Branson. A Marginal Risk is painted for the Miami, OK... area and that has even shifted a little further to the South.
It’s looking like a general half inch of rain is possible across the entire area by the time precipitation ends on Monday. There may be a rumble of thunder here and there but we are not looking at severe weather here.
We will continue to monitor the SPC and see if anything changes in the morning.
I (Rando) just got home from work and while in the kitchen I felt the floor tremble for a couple of seconds. Did anyone else feel anything in the Branson area? It happened around 10:50pm. Just curious, didn’t know if there was an earthquake nearby!
Mostly sunny skies and the Hi in the 60’s will start the weekend. However, don’t get used to it because yet another system will move in on Sunday.
Showers will increase on Sunday and will continue through Monday. There could be some thunder embedded in there but no severe weather is expected. Activity should wind down by Monday afternoon thee we should have a few days respite before the next system comes to visit by Friday.
We have been watching a rotating cell just South of Camdenton. That cell has now prompted a Tornado Warning. It appears that it will go South of the city of Camdenton. These kinds of cells take a "right turn" when they are ramping up and this one has certainly done that.
Here is the wind profiler showing where we see the wind turning.
Severe weather is occurring Northeast of Springfield toward Camdenton. This activity is moving away from the area.
The dry line is approaching the Hiway 65 corridor this evening. There is no activity associated directly with the dry line so there is no risk for severe weather for Springfield/Branson areas.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for part of southwest and western Missouri. A couple of marginally severe storms could develop in this area this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not likely. This area is just to the north of Branson, and includes Springfield.
The sun is playing hide and seek although we have some light activity moving through the Branson area now. This was expected as a front is generating some scattered rainfall across portions of the area.
We are watching the SPC this morning to see where, if any, elevated thunderstorms could occur this afternoon. What's happening is that initial front moved through but there's what we call a "dry line" approaching from the West. A dry line separates moist air from dry air. ...Generally this isn't a big deal, but when you have other dynamics combined with it then the chance of elevated activity is possible.
What we do know is that the threat is rather low because there's not that much instability. Wind Shear is pretty stout but moisture return is meager. As the dry line moves through then any residual moisture could condense and create pockets of strong thunderstorms.
The window for this activity is narrow so conditions have to be "just right" in order to produce a strong storm. It appears the best area for development will be North of Branson. The primary threat, if anything develops, should be hail. Since the wind shear is up then there's a VERY SMALL outside chance that a cell could start twisting but confidence is very low at this time so don't hold your breath. Therefore, at this juncture we are not going to talk about tornadoes.
For timing, the window should be around 2 or 3pm if anything develops. We will have to watch radar and provide up-to-the-minute updates.
The next SPC Day-1 Outlook will be issued around 11:30am so we will gander at that to see what they are thinking.
A significant fire danger exists again today, especially in the western half of the Stormdar Forecast Area. Fires have plagued this area for most of the week and today probably won’t be any different. Please be careful, because any open flame or spark has the potential to cause major damage to life and property. The Red Flag Warning expires at 7:00 p.m.
A very warm day is giving way to a mild night. We see our next system developing in Kansas and is generating some rain that will increase in the overnight hours. Expect rain to develop in Southwest MO after 3am and continue through Friday morning. We will get a break in the clouds probably by noon and that will allow temps to get back around the 70°F mark.
We are watching the SPC closely for the chance of maybe one or two elevated thunderstorms Friday afternoon. It appears the best chance for elevated activity in MO will be north of Branson.
We will do a thorough examination of model data and see what the SPC has to say tomorrow morning.